Champions Cup and Challenge Cup: Toulouse - UBB in semis, Clermont - MHR in quarters?

Let's explore what the knockout stages of the two prestigious competitions have in store for us, with the brackets determined since this weekend and the final rounds of the pool stages.

Champions Cup: A Toulouse - Leinster Final?

If everything goes according to plan, Toulouse and Union Bordeaux-Bègles will be the only French representatives in the quarterfinals. One thing is certain, there won't be a fully French quarterfinal, unlike the Toulouse - Racing showdown that awaits us in the round of 16 in just over two months (April 5th, while the two teams will face each other again in the league at the end of the week). It is equally certain that there will be a Franco-English quarterfinal, as the winner of this internal confrontation will face either Exeter or Bath. In addition to the potential Toulouse - Exeter clash, the other matchups could lead us to UBB - Saracens, Leinster - Stormers, and Northampton - Bulls. The remaining representatives from the Top 14, La Rochelle and LOU, will have to overturn the odds when they play against the Stormers and the Bulls, respectively.

If Toulouse and UBB then make it to the quarterfinals, the French powerhouses will face each other in Toulouse (seeded number one), while the other semifinal could feature Leinster against Northampton. In this half of the bracket, the two-time reigning champions, La Rochelle, would have to pull off a potential upset against Leinster in the quarterfinals, but that is still a long way off... If the bracket plays out as anticipated until May 25th, Toulouse and Leinster would battle for the title in London. A neutral ground that could finally favor the French champions, who have been defeated in their last four encounters in Ireland, including three semifinals (twice in 2019, then in 2022 and 2023). But all of this is just theory...

Challenge Cup: Pau as the dark horse?

On the other side, the theoretical quarterfinals would be Sharks - Edinburgh (although Bayonne has a chance in Scotland), Clermont - Montpellier, Gloucester - Ospreys (Castres will be the underdog in Gloucester), and Treviso - Pau, setting up potential semis between Sharks - Clermont and Gloucester - Treviso. Thus, a potential final between Sharks and Gloucester on Friday, May 24th, at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Yet again, all predictions are meant to be defied, and one might even consider betting on Section Paloise, for example, to confirm their excellent start to the season by defeating Treviso. However, the Palois first have to overcome Connacht in the round of 16... A matchup that is firmly set in stone for the round of 16, alongside other challenging encounters such as Montpellier - Ulster and Clermont - Cheetahs.